The model predicts the optimal race‑pace at Monza will be a single stop after lap 33 on medium tyres, switching to hard for the final 20 laps.
The forecast is built on the 2023‑2025 editions, where each winner used a one‑stop medium‑to‑hard split. TELOS fits a degradation of 0.024 s per lap on the medium and 0.049 s per lap on the hard, giving a low overall tyre‑wear rating of 2 on the circuit. With a pit‑loss of 25.43 seconds, the one‑stop plan (M33→H20) totals 4 404.33 seconds, 17.5 seconds faster than any two‑stop alternative.
One‑stop dominance
The sole strategy labelled “M33 → H20” carries a delta of 0 seconds, meaning it is the baseline against which all other options are measured. Its window opens between laps 30 and 36, giving teams a 7‑lap window to execute the stop without sacrificing track position. The model’s total time of 4 404.33 seconds translates to an average lap of 83.13 seconds, comfortably within the historic pace range for the circuit.
Two‑stop alternatives lag behind
The next‑best options involve two stops. The “M20 → M20 → H13” and “M20 → H14 → M19” plans each add 17.5 seconds to the race time, primarily from the extra pit‑losses. Their windows sit at laps 17‑23 for the first stop and 37‑43 or 31‑37 for the second, respectively. Even the “M24 → H14 → H15” layout, despite a later first stop (laps 21‑27) and a second stop (laps 35‑41), is 18.3 seconds slower. The extra pit‑loss cannot be offset by the marginal tyre‑life gain, confirming the one‑stop as the clear optimum.
A single stop after lap 33 on medium tyres delivers the fastest total race time.
Why the medium‑hard split works
Medium tyres at Monza degrade slowly (0.024 s per lap) and retain sufficient grip for a 33‑lap stint, while the hard compound’s higher base time (80.528 s) is offset by its durability, allowing a 20‑lap finish run without a significant performance drop. The low degradation rating (2) indicates that tyre‑cliff effects are minimal, so teams can push the medium to its limit before switching. The model’s anchor on the hard compound reflects its role as the finishing tyre, ensuring a stable out‑lap into the final laps when fuel loads are low and aerodynamic drag is at its minimum.
Implications for the grid
Teams starting on the medium will aim to stay clear of traffic until the pit window opens, avoiding dirty air that could accelerate tyre wear. An undercut is unlikely to be decisive because the pit‑loss outweighs any time gained on fresh medium rubber. Conversely, an overcut—staying out longer on the medium—carries risk if a driver hits the tyre‑cliff before lap 33, but the model’s low degradation suggests the window is forgiving. The forecast therefore encourages a clean, single‑stop race, with the primary battle shifting to track‑position and out‑lap performance rather than tyre strategy.
The weather forecast shows dry conditions all weekend, with maximum temperatures around 33 °C and negligible precipitation, reinforcing the low‑degradation environment. Combined with Monza’s low‑downforce setup (downforce rating 1) and high‑speed nature, the one‑stop medium‑hard plan aligns with both the physical demands of the circuit and the historical data.
Overall, TELOS projects that the fastest route through the 53‑lap race will be a single pit stop in the 30‑36 lap window, swapping from medium to hard, delivering a total race time of 4 404.33 seconds and a clear advantage of over 17 seconds against any two‑stop configuration.