Title Race · 2026
TITLE RACE
Championship permutations
Who's still mathematically in the fight for the Drivers' Championship — and who's already out — based on the points still up for grabs.
Still up for grabs
22 drivers can still win the 2026 title.
16
Races left
3
Sprints left
424
Max points available
156
Leader points
Title odds · Monte Carlo
Andrea Kimi Antonelli
100%
Lewis Hamilton
0.3%
George Russell
0.2%
How these odds work.
2,000 Monte-Carlo simulations of the remaining
16 races + 3 sprints.
Each driver's per-race finishing chance is weighted by their points-per-race form this season; we then tally who tops the table at year's end.
A model, not a crystal ball — real-world chaos (weather, DNFs, upgrades) isn't priced in.
In the hunt
Pos
Driver
Max attainable
Status
1
Andrea Kimi Antonelli
Mercedes · 156 pts
580max possible
★ Leader
2
Lewis Hamilton
Ferrari · 90 pts · −66 to leader
514max possible
In the hunt
3
George Russell
Mercedes · 88 pts · −68 to leader
512max possible
In the hunt
4
Charles Leclerc
Ferrari · 75 pts · −81 to leader
499max possible
In the hunt
5
Oscar Piastri
McLaren · 58 pts · −98 to leader
482max possible
In the hunt
6
Lando Norris
McLaren · 58 pts · −98 to leader
482max possible
In the hunt
7
Max Verstappen
Red Bull · 43 pts · −113 to leader
467max possible
In the hunt
8
Pierre Gasly
Alpine F1 Team · 35 pts · −121 to leader
459max possible
In the hunt
9
Isack Hadjar
Red Bull · 26 pts · −130 to leader
450max possible
In the hunt
10
Liam Lawson
RB F1 Team · 24 pts · −132 to leader
448max possible
In the hunt
11
Oliver Bearman
Haas F1 Team · 18 pts · −138 to leader
442max possible
In the hunt
12
Franco Colapinto
Alpine F1 Team · 15 pts · −141 to leader
439max possible
In the hunt
13
Arvid Lindblad
RB F1 Team · 11 pts · −145 to leader
435max possible
In the hunt
14
Carlos Sainz
Williams · 6 pts · −150 to leader
430max possible
In the hunt
15
Alexander Albon
Williams · 5 pts · −151 to leader
429max possible
In the hunt
16
Esteban Ocon
Haas F1 Team · 3 pts · −153 to leader
427max possible
In the hunt
17
Gabriel Bortoleto
Audi · 2 pts · −154 to leader
426max possible
In the hunt
18
Fernando Alonso
Aston Martin · 1 pts · −155 to leader
425max possible
In the hunt
19
Nico Hülkenberg
Audi · 0 pts · −156 to leader
424max possible
In the hunt
20
Valtteri Bottas
Cadillac F1 Team · 0 pts · −156 to leader
424max possible
In the hunt
21
Sergio Pérez
Cadillac F1 Team · 0 pts · −156 to leader
424max possible
In the hunt
22
Lance Stroll
Aston Martin · 0 pts · −156 to leader
424max possible
In the hunt
How this is calculated. With
16 races and 3 sprints left, the most any driver can still score is
16×25 + 3×8 = 424 points. A driver is in the hunt
if their current points plus that maximum can still reach the leader's current total; otherwise they're
mathematically eliminated. Ties are decided on count-back (most wins), not modelled here.
Standings & schedule pulled live from the Ergast/Jolpica F1 data set.