Title Race · 2026
TITLE RACE
Championship permutations
Who's still mathematically in the fight for the Drivers' Championship — and who's already out — based on the points still up for grabs.
Still up for grabs
9 drivers can still win the 2026 title.
9
Races left
1
Sprints left
233
Max points available
292
Leader points
Title odds
Andrea Kimi Antonelli
100%
George Russell
0.2%
Lando Norris
<1%
How these odds work.
2,000 simulations of the remaining
9 races + 1 sprint.
Each car's per-race finishing chance blends its points-per-race form this season with our trained driver-skill rating (a car-adjusted Bradley-Terry model, applied as a modest tilt); we then tally who tops the table at year's end.
A model, not a crystal ball — real-world chaos (weather, DNFs, upgrades) isn't priced in.
In the hunt
Pos
Driver
Max attainable
Status
1
Andrea Kimi Antonelli
Mercedes · 292 pts
525max possible
★ Leader
2
George Russell
Mercedes · 211 pts · −81 to leader
444max possible
In the hunt
3
Lewis Hamilton
Ferrari · 191 pts · −101 to leader
424max possible
In the hunt
4
Lando Norris
McLaren · 186 pts · −106 to leader
419max possible
In the hunt
5
Charles Leclerc
Ferrari · 167 pts · −125 to leader
400max possible
In the hunt
6
Max Verstappen
Red Bull · 145 pts · −147 to leader
378max possible
In the hunt
7
Oscar Piastri
McLaren · 120 pts · −172 to leader
353max possible
In the hunt
8
Isack Hadjar
Red Bull · 71 pts · −221 to leader
304max possible
In the hunt
9
Liam Lawson
RB F1 Team · 59 pts · −233 to leader
292max possible
In the hunt
10
Pierre Gasly
Alpine F1 Team · 41 pts · −251 to leader
274max possible
Eliminated
11
Arvid Lindblad
RB F1 Team · 31 pts · −261 to leader
264max possible
Eliminated
12
Franco Colapinto
Alpine F1 Team · 27 pts · −265 to leader
260max possible
Eliminated
13
Oliver Bearman
Haas F1 Team · 18 pts · −274 to leader
251max possible
Eliminated
14
Gabriel Bortoleto
Audi · 10 pts · −282 to leader
243max possible
Eliminated
15
Nico Hülkenberg
Audi · 7 pts · −285 to leader
240max possible
Eliminated
16
Carlos Sainz
Williams · 6 pts · −286 to leader
239max possible
Eliminated
17
Alexander Albon
Williams · 5 pts · −287 to leader
238max possible
Eliminated
18
Esteban Ocon
Haas F1 Team · 3 pts · −289 to leader
236max possible
Eliminated
19
Fernando Alonso
Aston Martin · 3 pts · −289 to leader
236max possible
Eliminated
20
Yuki Tsunoda
RB F1 Team · 1 pts · −291 to leader
234max possible
Eliminated
21
Lance Stroll
Aston Martin · 0 pts · −292 to leader
233max possible
Eliminated
22
Valtteri Bottas
Cadillac F1 Team · 0 pts · −292 to leader
233max possible
Eliminated
23
Sergio Pérez
Cadillac F1 Team · 0 pts · −292 to leader
233max possible
Eliminated
How this is calculated. With
9 races and 1 sprint left, the most any driver can still score is
9×25 + 1×8 = 233 points. A driver is in the hunt
if their current points plus that maximum can still reach the leader's current total; otherwise they're
mathematically eliminated. Ties are decided on count-back (most wins), not modelled here.
Standings & schedule pulled live from the Ergast/Jolpica F1 data set.