Italy Grand Prix
Monza, 53 laps
Why not the others
Every legal one, two and three-stop, on the same scale. The extra stops buy fresher rubber and pay 25 seconds each time for it — at this circuit that trade does not come back.
332020201320141924141514162316161011What actually won here
The same drawing, for the last 3 races at this circuit. The forecast is built from these, so if its bar looks nothing like theirs, that is the model telling you something surprising — or telling you it is wrong. Both are worth knowing before Sunday.
371615382031The tyres this circuit gives you
Degradation is the slope of a car's fuel-corrected lap time against tyre age, fitted on clean laps only. A compound needs at least 12 fitted stints here to enter the model — at some circuits the soft is a qualifying tyre that barely races, and a handful of scrappy stints produce a tyre that appears never to wear out.
MEDIUM
HARD
Does the undercut work here
The undercut does not pay here. On this circuit's degradation a car staying out on mediums loses less per lap than an out-lap on cold rubber costs. Track position is worth more than fresh tyres, and the overcut is the stronger move.
Every lap of every past Monza race in the data is fuel-corrected — roughly 0.035s of lap time per kilogram still on board — then each stint's clean laps are regressed against tyre age to get a degradation rate. Pit loss is measured from real stops: the in-lap and out-lap of each stop against what two ordinary laps cost the same car. With those numbers, every legal compound sequence for one, two and three stops is simulated over 53 laps, with the stint lengths searched exhaustively. Nothing here is a guess, and nothing here is live — a forecast built on the races that already happened is worth more than a live feed we would have to invent.
It assumes a dry race, one representative front-running car, no safety car and no traffic. A safety car in the pit window is worth more than every second on this page.
OpenF1 — past editions at this circuit. Model fitted, not live. · generated 1 Sep 2026 12:40 UTC