Monza Strategy Model Predicts One‑Stop Medium‑to‑Hard Plan

Timing &amp; telemetry: OpenF1, from the official Formula 1 timing feed. Championship data via Jolpica/Ergast.
Cover: TELOS graphic, first published on Instagram .
Method: drafted from TELOS session data with AI assistance, then reviewed before publication. Every figure comes from the feeds above — none are model-generated.

The new TELOS model indicates that the optimal approach at Monza is a single stop, running medium tyres until lap 33 and then fitting hard compounds for the final stint. The pit window is projected between laps 30 and 36, aligning the change‑over with the expected tyre degradation curve.

One‑stop medium‑to‑hard strategy maximises track position at Monza.

The model bases its recommendation on degradation data from every previous Monza edition, simulating all legal strategies against that baseline. It calculates a pit‑lane loss of 25.4 seconds, derived from actual Monza pit‑lane timing rather than a generic assumption. This forecast is released ahead of the race to allow teams and fans to compare the prediction with the live data on Sunday.

The analysis underscores that a clean undercut or overcut is unlikely to outweigh the time lost in the pit lane, given the relatively flat tyre wear profile at the high‑speed circuit. Teams that adhere to the suggested window should preserve tyre performance while minimizing the tyre cliff that typically appears later in longer stints.