Driver Rating

SAME CAR. WHO'S FASTER?

Every driver measured only against the person in the same machinery

NOR

Lando Norris

McLaren

1,783±147

LEC

Charles Leclerc

Ferrari

1,769±124

Too close to call

In equal machinery the model gives NOR 52.1% against LEC 47.9% — a 14-point gap. That gap sits inside the margin of error, so the model does not separate them.

NEVER SHARED A CAR · RATING LINKED THROUGH COMMON TEAMMATES

NOR profile LEC profile

The 2026 grid

2026 grid All-time 2014–2026

Every driver on the 2026 grid, rated on their current skill with the car taken out: the model rates every car separately (below) and credits the driver only with what the car cannot explain. Skill is allowed to change season to season, so the 2014 version of a driver is not the 2026 one. Drivers with fewer than 60 teammate duels are shown as provisional. The likely rank is where each driver lands in 90% of re-draws of the ratings within their margin of error. Where ranges overlap the order is noise — read the table in groups, not as a queue. Even the best version of this model calls only about two teammate duels in three: drivers in equal cars are close.

#	Driver	Likely rank	Teammate duels	Quali gap	Form
1	Max Verstappen Red Bull	#1–2	336–82	−0.14%	1,964
2	Lando Norris McLaren	#2–8	195–105	−0.07%	1,783
3	George Russell Mercedes	#2–8	210–91	+0.29%	1,780
4	Charles Leclerc Ferrari	#2–8	223–118	−0.01%	1,769
5	Lewis Hamilton Ferrari	#2–12	279–216	+0.01%	1,709
6	Isack Hadjar PROVISIONAL Red Bull	#3–12	26–21	+0.10%	1,703
7	Oscar Piastri McLaren	#2–13	49–100	+0.07%	1,702
8	Carlos Sainz Williams	#3–13	194–218	−0.40%	1,686
9	Andrea Kimi Antonelli Mercedes	#4–17	21–47	−0.29%	1,635
10	Fernando Alonso Aston Martin	#5–19	258–90	−0.26%	1,609
11	Alexander Albon Williams	#7–19	125–87	+0.40%	1,595
12	Pierre Gasly Alpine F1 Team	#7–19	184–116	−0.25%	1,579
13	Sergio Pérez Cadillac F1 Team	#7–20	164–266	−0.12%	1,577
14	Oliver Bearman PROVISIONAL Haas F1 Team	#9–21	38–20	−0.23%	1,553
15	Valtteri Bottas Cadillac F1 Team	#8–21	198–214	+0.12%	1,549
16	Esteban Ocon Haas F1 Team	#10–21	140–176	+0.23%	1,537
17	Arvid Lindblad PROVISIONAL RB F1 Team	#9–22	11–10	+0.08%	1,526
18	Nico Hülkenberg Audi	#10–22	189–145	+0.11%	1,516
19	Liam Lawson RB F1 Team	#12–22	20–50	−0.02%	1,496
20	Gabriel Bortoleto PROVISIONAL Audi	#11–23	24–25	−0.11%	1,483
21	Yuki Tsunoda RB F1 Team	#14–23	63–112	—	1,451
22	Franco Colapinto PROVISIONAL Alpine F1 Team	#16–23	14–40	+0.25%	1,433
23	Lance Stroll Aston Martin	#15–23	97–237	+0.26%	1,424

Receipts

What the duel record says once you look at it properly. Every number here is checkable on the page it links to.

The most one-sided teammate record since 2014

ALB 0 SAR

Alexander Albon beat Logan Sargeant in 43 of their 43 duels as teammates — same car, same weekend.

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The teammate battle that never had a winner

OCO 38–37 PER

Esteban Ocon and Sergio Pérez split 75 duels almost exactly down the middle: 38–37.

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One was faster on Saturday. The other won on Sunday.

QUALI MAG 6 MSC · RACE MAG 11 MSC

Kevin Magnussen had the edge in qualifying, but it was Mick Schumacher who finished ahead more often — same car, same seasons.

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The gap at the top is not close

VER 336–82 vs teammates

Max Verstappen rates 105 points clear of Nico Rosberg — a bigger gap than the one between second and tenth.

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These drivers cannot be told apart

ROS 1859 · NOR 1783 · RUS 1780 · LEC 1769

Once the margin of error is taken seriously, Nico Rosberg, Lando Norris, George Russell, Charles Leclerc are statistically level. Any ranking that puts them in a strict order is inventing precision.

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Not the driver he was

BOT FORM 1549 · CAREER 1635

Valtteri Bottas rates 86 points below his own career level once recent seasons are weighted heavier.

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Settle an argument

Pick two drivers. The model reports who wins in equal machinery, and their real record as teammates if they ever shared a garage.

How it works — and what it can't see

A driver's finishing position mostly measures their car. Put anyone in the dominant chassis and they look like a champion. So this rating splits every result into two parts: how good the driver is and how good the car is, and only the first part is the driver's rating.

Every qualifying session and every race since 2014 is used as a full finishing order, not just "who beat their teammate". Each driver's strength in a session is their skill plus their car's level that season plus how well that car suited that particular track. The model (a Bayesian rank-ordered logit, the approach published by van Kesteren & Bergkamp in 2023) finds the skills and car levels that best explain every order at once. Teammates pin down the drivers, because inside a garage the car cancels out; drivers who change teams link the whole grid together.

Skill is allowed to change from season to season, so a driver's rise or decline shows up, and races count half as much as qualifying because strategy, safety cars and team orders make race orders noisier.

Mechanical retirements are discarded. Losing to your teammate on the day your gearbox failed measures the gearbox. Crashes and collisions do count — those are the driver's.

It was tested, not just built. Trained on every season before a given year and then asked to call that year's teammate duels — which it never saw — it matched or beat the previous teammate-only model: on 2023–2026, 67% of 1,271 held-out duels called right (log-loss 0.604 vs 0.6053). That is a real edge over a coin flip and a modest one. Two drivers in the same car are genuinely close, and anything claiming to call these duels nine times out of ten is selling something. What the new model adds is the car: it can compare drivers who never shared a garage, and say what a driver would do in a different car.

The margin of error is part of the answer. Every rating comes from thousands of posterior draws, so each one is published with the range the evidence supports, and when two ranges overlap this page says "too close to call" instead of inventing a winner.

The honest limits, because a number worth sharing should carry them:

It cannot see team orders, split strategies, or who got the upgrade first — an upgrade given to one car only is credited to that driver.
Car and driver are only separable because drivers change teams. A driver who has only ever had one teammate is measured almost entirely against that teammate.
Race and qualifying duels from the same weekend are correlated, so the ranges are, if anything, slightly optimistic.
Drivers with fewer than 60 duels are left out of the all-time table, and marked provisional on the current grid (at least 20 needed to appear). One strong season is not a career.
The rating uses finishing orders, not lap-time margins. The quali gap column shows the margin (median % of lap time to the teammate this season) as evidence — we tested using the margin instead, and it did not predict future duels any better.

Built on the public F1 results archive (Jolpica/Ergast), 2014–2026.

267 RACE WEEKENDS · 4,534 TEAMMATE DUELS (1,904 RACE + 2,630 QUALIFYING) · 13 SEASONS · UPDATED 27 Sep 2026

The rest of the grid data

Real telemetry, head-to-heads, live title scenarios and a prediction record you can check. Free to look around.

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