One extra pit stop in Baku costs 11.76 seconds.
Stopping early loses 1.82 seconds compared with staying out.
Model Insight
The TELOS model, trained on 111 stints from the 2023‑2025 seasons, predicts that a medium‑to‑hard tyre change executed between lap 34 and lap 40 adds 11.76 seconds to a driver’s total race time. Within that window, an undercut – pitting before a rival – actually loses 1.82 seconds, indicating that staying out longer is the quicker option when clean air persists and no safety car intervenes.
Historical Context
Two of the last three winners at the Baku City Circuit completed their pit stops by lap 15, a strategy that contrasts sharply with the later stop modelled here. Those early stops suggest that the race can be won from a short‑window strategy, but the model’s forecast assumes clean air and no safety‑car periods, which can dramatically alter pit‑lane timing.
Looking Ahead
Saturday’s qualifying will reveal whether teams will favour an early stop like recent winners or adopt the later medium‑to‑hard change the model highlights. TELOS will publish the final verdict after the session, confirming which approach yields the best track position in Baku’s unique street layout.